MARKETS IN A NUTSHELL — FOR NOVEMBER 2025

Thanksgiving arrived just in time for US investors when the longest government shutdown on record concluded in November. After 43 days without funding — and without economic data — Congress brokered a fragile agreement to reopen the government. The missed data points, including jobs reports and the inflation print, left markets without some key signals. In the absence of direction, participants defaulted to caution.

Technology stocks remained in focus. Google launched Gemini 3 — its most capable AI model yet, trained on its own chips — and integrated it directly into search. Market darling Nvidia’s quarterly results beat estimates again. Sales of its most advanced chips were ‘off the charts’, according to CEO Jensen Huang. But surprisingly neither event moved markets as may once have been the case.

The broader backdrop showed signs of unease. Bitcoin fell sharply, giving back more than 30% since its October all-time high. Meanwhile, Japanese bond yields moved higher and the yen lower, disturbing one of the quietest corners of the global market. Gold, by contrast, was up again as investors reached for ballast. While none of these paints a picture of crisis, it seems that market sentiment may be fraying at the edges.

In contrast, it was a good month to be long South Africa. The SA Reserve Bank delivered a well-signalled rate cut, citing improved inflation dynamics. Ratings agency S&P Global followed with a sovereign rating upgrade — the country’s first in two decades. SA equities rose decisively, led once again by commodity shares. Bonds, listed property and the rand gained.

The Foord Global Equity Fund and Foord Asia ex-Japan Fund edged lower in the global malaise and after Chinese bourses slipped on profit-taking after a strong run this year. The conservative Foord International Fund turned in another great month as its defensive investments came to the fore. Its year-to-date returns top 30% in US dollars. 

So while November didn’t end a trend, it may have slowed one down. The exuberance of earlier this year has been replaced with something closer to scrutiny. If momentum was the driver through midyear, the burden of proof may have finally moved. Hope is no longer the base case.

I wish all readers a safe and peaceful festive season and look forward to communicating again in the new year.