MARKETS IN A NUTSHELL — FOR JANUARY 2026

January was a stark reminder for investors that geopolitics is more than background noise. The year started with a geopolitical bang and the world’s risk premium rose. Markets advanced through much of the month, even as the headlines grew steadily more martial. Then, at month-end, several crowded trades snapped back sharply.

The US was again centre stage. In a daring overnight operation in Caracas, US forces removed Venezuela’s indicted leader, Nicolás Maduro, and his wife, without US casualties. Whatever might be said of the legal basis for this action, the strategic message was that the US retains an operational reach no rising power can match. Washington also tightened enforcement around the murkier channels of energy trade, targeting illicit Venezuelan oil flows and Russia’s shadow tanker networks. The screws were tightened on Iran as well, with the threat of US military might.

European capitals panicked after President Trump demanded ‘right, title and ownership’ of Greenland. Nato allies were put on notice that the transatlantic security framework would also be treated as a bargaining table. Markets, too, are being forced to price a world in which alliances appear more transactional and institutions more exposed to politics. The US Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell came under Department of Justice scrutiny and markets weighed Trump’s new nomination to lead the Fed.

Against this unsettled backdrop, markets showed a degree of composure. Equities rose across most major regions, with emerging markets stronger than developed peers. South Africa’s share market also advanced, led by resource shares for much of the month, even if the sector suffered sharp reversals in the final days of January. The rand traded stronger as did the local bond market.

These geopolitical cross currents showed up most clearly in real assets. Copper and gold surged to record levels during the month, helped by supply disruptions at major mines and the sense that demand is structurally firm — from electrification to the wiring of data centres. Gold’s record rally also reflected a search for shelter amid geopolitical turbulence and lingering inflation anxiety.

January, however, concluded with an abrupt reversal. Precious metals fell hard on the final trading day, with silver and platinum suffering particularly sharp one-day declines. The trigger was not a sudden restoration of calm, but the realisation that even safe assets can behave like risk assets when positioning becomes extreme. Mr Trump’s choice of Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair steadied the dollar and was enough to unsettle a rally that had begun to look one-sided. Crypto — often touted as an alternative refuge — was also lower. The Swiss franc is starting to look like the most reliable haven, and it strengthened again.

The flagship Foord International Fund gained meaningfully, supported by returns from Chinese equities and materials companies. The Foord Global Equity Fund achieved market-matching returns after costs, despite positioning that differs materially from the broader market. The Foord Asia ex-Japan Fund also generated solid absolute returns but lagged its benchmark, which surged sharply in January. All Foord SA funds produced strong gains in the risk on environment, though they lagged peers that were more aggressively positioned in higher-risk segments of the market. 

January’s lesson is that politics matters and that crowded consensus trades — whether in metals, currencies or alternatives — can turn into forced selling with very little notice. For long-term investors, the answer, as always, is not to trade the noise, but to remain properly diversified, liquid, and anchored in fundamentals. In a world where politics increasingly drives price action in markets, preparation matters more than prediction.