MARKETS IN A NUTSHELL — FOR MARCH 2025

The US took centre stage again in March — but for all the wrong reasons. Instead of being the engine of global optimism, America became the main source of investor anxiety. Wall Street fell sharply, with the S&P 500 down nearly 6%; dragged lower by tariff talk, recession worries, and an unpredictable policy backdrop under President Trump. Since Trump's return to office, US stocks have dropped almost 20% — the worst start to a presidential term in decades.

The damage wasn't confined to the US. Global markets felt the pinch, with US-heavy developed market indices sliding 4% in March. However, emerging markets bucked the trend — rising more than 2% — driven by China’s ongoing recovery and government efforts to boost domestic consumption. South African shares also rose 3.6%, lifted by the resources sector. Gold was a standout, surging 9% and crossing the $3,000 per ounce milestone for the first time.

Investors seeking safety turned to bonds, pushing yields lower globally. Concerns are rising that Trump's tariff strategy could spark stagflation — slowing growth coupled with rising inflation — in the US. American consumer spending has propped up the economy, but consumption could falter if falling stock prices dent perceptions of wealth or if prices rise.

Closer to home, sentiment faded quickly — despite the JSE’s resources sector resilience in March. Political uncertainty and the Budget vote fracas weakened investor confidence. The rand and bonds were steady in March, but fell heavily after month end.

Despite the turmoil, Foord’s global portfolios were resilient. The defensive positioning — especially the lower weight to expensive US assets — protected capital during this volatile period. The flagship US dollar priced Foord International Fund added 3.2% in March, when most share markets fell heavily. The fund is up 8% in US dollars in 2025. Locally, the Foord SA multi-asset funds produced a positive result despite the poor opportunity set. The Foord Flexible Fund is up nearly 5% year to date.

After month end, Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’ on 2 April turned sour as investors reacted badly to his sweeping new ‘Reciprocal Tariffs’. No country was spared. Rather than delivering the promised economic freedom, the move triggered widespread and severe market turmoil, spiking volatility.

We remain cautious during the current market selloff. We hold sufficient cash to capitalise on emerging opportunities — but will not speculate — and maintain the gold position as a buffer against uncertainty. Our focus continues to be on quality companies, solid fundamentals, and prudent valuations.