MARKETS IN A NUTSHELL — FOR JUNE 2025

Global markets advanced again in June after the rapid resolution of the 12-day Israel–Iran war and a further détente in the US–China trade battle. This one-two punch of geopolitical and tariff relief boosted investor sentiment, fuelling broad-based gains across risk assets. US share markets were especially resurgent — recouping first quarter losses. Chinese equities resumed their gains of earlier in the year.

On Capitol Hill, President Trump’s sprawling One Big Beautiful Bill Act squeezed through the Senate after the Vice President’s tie-break vote, locking in tax cuts and unleashing fresh spending. Bond markets are nervous about the debt trajectory, but were resilient in expectations that the Fed might soon aggressively cut interest rates amid subdued inflation. It was the US dollar that became the whipping boy of US economic policy, falling sharply against the other majors — its worst half-year performance since 1973. 

Dollar weakness lit a fire under commodities, with copper gaining noticeably in the month. Gold bullion remained elevated, while the platinum price rally persisted on Chinese jewellery buying. Brent crude oil spiked above $75 per barrel at the outbreak of the Middle East conflict, but eased latterly as a ceasefire came into effect.

JSE-listed shares were also buoyant, achieving double-digit gains for the quarter. Resources shares — now up 40% for the year — led the gains. The South African bond market also advanced on the prospect of lower rates as inflation continued to ease towards the lower end of the Reserve Bank’s target range. The rand firmed against the dollar but was volatile intramonth after President Ramaphosa summarily fired a Democratic Alliance deputy minister — renewing tensions in the multi-party coalition. 

The Foord global funds added attractive absolute returns in the risk-on environment. The conservative Foord International Fund gained 3.1% and is up over 17% for the year. It maintains a hedge against a dramatic fall in US bourses. The Foord Global Equity and Asia ex-Japan Funds are nicely ahead of their benchmarks on a year-to-date basis — reflecting the better diversification away from expensive US shares, which have lagged most other markets.

In South Africa, the Foord multi-asset funds have delivered attractive, inflation-beating returns this year. The Foord Equity Fund has trailed the market, given its lower resources weighting — especially to platinum miners, where we feel the price rally is likely to be impermanent. The Foord fixed income suite has delivered returns mostly above benchmarks, except for the Foord Bond Fund where we have less exposure to riskier, very long dated bonds that have gained most.

This month we also said a sad farewell to a Foord stalwart. After a decade in the hot seat, Foord Singapore CEO Agnes Cai departed to pursue a new chapter outside of asset management, and we wish her all the best. We have appointed two quality candidates in operational roles in the last six months and Paul Cluer has received regulatory approval to act as interim CEO.