Markets in a Nutshell
World
South Africa
Equities
World
The US-led global share market rally continued apace on hopes that interest rates would soon fall — emerging markets lagged, with Chinese equities falling further and the Hang Seng Index plumbing 25-year lows
South Africa
The FTSE/JSE Capped All Share Index was lower, more so in US dollars on currency weakness — weighed down by financial counters and by resources shares, which fell heavily before experiencing a reprieve in March
Bonds
World
Developed market bond markets fell after a slew of adverse US inflation surprises caused investors to pare expectations for interest rate cuts — even while inflation had fallen faster in the UK and EU
South Africa
The All Bond Index was negative for the quarter after bond yields tracked global bond yields higher — but cash continues to offer inflation-beating returns, given the high interest rates on offer
Currencies
World
The US dollar was stronger against the majors and most currencies — given expectations that US rates would stay higher for longer on robust growth and sticky inflation
South Africa
The rand shrugged off an optimistic budget on confirmation that National Treasury would tap SARB’s excess reserves to reduce debt — but lost ground against the greenback on broad-based US dollar strength
Commodities
World
Commodities from copper to cocoa surged higher, with Brent crude oil gaining 14% and touching $90 a barrel — gold bullion surged 9% in March to hit new all-time highs on geopolitical tension and Chinese central bank buying
South Africa
Commodities from copper to cocoa surged higher, with Brent crude oil gaining 14% and touching $90 a barrel — gold bullion surged 9% in March to hit new all-time highs on geopolitical tension and Chinese central bank buying
Economy
World
US economic growth remains robust, although high rates are now taking a toll on auto loan and credit card delinquencies — but the UK, Germany and Japan (later revised up) fell into technical recession after recording a successive quarterly GDP contraction
South Africa
The South African economy remains heavily constrained, with GDP growth for 2023 coming in at just 0.6% — the gap between SA economic growth and world growth is now double its long-term average
Monetary and fiscal policy
World
US inflation has proved sticky below 4%, but the ‘supercore’ measure of services inflation less housing rose to near 5% — market expectations for six US Federal Reserve cuts in 2024 have now been whittled down to less than three
South Africa
Consumer inflation remains sticky at the high end of SARB’s target range, with petrol price pressures likely to compound matters — the market is now only expecting one quarter-point cut in interest rates towards year end