Markets in a Nutshell — March 2026
World
South Africa
Equities
World
Global equities erased earlier risk-on gains after a late-quarter energy shock compounded geopolitical risks — developed and emerging markets all traded lower, with European stocks falling most
South Africa
The JSE retraced its early gains in March to end flat for the quarter after resource counters led the declines — rand weakness in the risk-off trade was insufficient to buoy mining stocks, which fell on lower metals prices
Bonds
World
Global developed market bond yields rose (and bonds fell) after investors pared rate-cut hopes as the US-Iran war stoked inflationary fears — Chinese bonds bucked the trend, given its much lower inflation and different energy mix
South Africa
SA bonds tracked global bond markets weaker on inflation worries — the SARB kept the repo rate at 6.75% and warned that higher oil, gas and fertiliser prices had shifted risks to the inflation outlook upward
Currencies
World
The US dollar was dominant during the market rout — expectations of more hawkish US Federal Reserve monetary policy and late-quarter risk aversion supported the greenback
South Africa
The rand weakened against the US dollar from overbought levels — global risk-off sentiment and the oil shock late in the quarter outweighed earlier support from the domestic backdrop
Commodities
World
Gold’s record rally hit a wall in March, with its haven status slipping on forced sovereign selling for liquidity reasons — copper fell on global growth worries, but oil prices surged 60% on the Iranian chokehold on Middle Eastern crude deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz
South Africa
Gold’s record rally hit a wall in March, with its haven status slipping on forced sovereign selling for liquidity reasons — copper fell on global growth worries, but oil prices surged 60% on the Iranian chokehold on Middle Eastern crude deliveries through the Strait of Hormuz
Economy
World
The global economy entered 2026 on steadier footing than expected, with the IMF still projecting 3.3% growth for the year — but the quarter ended with greater geopolitical and inflation uncertainty
South Africa
South Africa extended its run of quarterly (low) growth and inflation cooled to 3% — but the economy enjoys only modest momentum and now faces headwinds from higher oil prices and rand weakness
Monetary and fiscal policy
World
The US Federal Reserve kept rates unchanged and signalled elevated uncertainty, with inflation still above target — but other central banks have become decidedly hawkish, with the Reserve Bank of Australia already raising interest rates twice this year
South Africa
The SARB kept the repo rate at 6.75%, while the National Budget 2026 struck a firmer fiscal tone after windfall mining taxes — debt is set to stabilise this year and the previously pencilled-in R20 billion tax increase was withdrawn