Markets in a Nutshell — June 2025
World
South Africa
Equities
World
Global equities rallied to double-digit gains, with US bourses recouping Q1 losses on robust earnings and moderating inflation — shrugging off the 12-day Israel-Iran war and Liberation Day lows after the US offered a 90-day abeyance on reciprocal tariffs
South Africa
Emerging markets rallied on buoyant commodity prices, with the FTSE/JSE All Share also powering ahead — resource stocks advanced further, but the gains were broad-based, with industrial and financial counters outperforming
Bonds
World
Global government bonds advanced as bond yields continued to moderate on expectations of lower real interest rates despite fiscal headwinds — while credit spreads narrowed modestly
South Africa
South African bonds rallied, boosted by resilient demand amid stable inflation and a dovish SARB outlook — the yield curve steepened slightly as long-dated yields fell less than short-term rates
Currencies
World
Major currencies strengthened versus the US dollar, with the euro gaining over 8% against the greenback — and the dollar becoming the whipping boy to expansionary US fiscal policy and slumping to its worst start to a year since 1973
South Africa
The rand was volatile on acute political stress as the GNU looked increasingly precarious and the US administration became increasingly hostile towards SA — but gained 3% over the quarter on broad-based US dollar weakness
Commodities
World
Precious metals prices were mostly higher amid US dollar weakness, and safe-haven (gold) and jewellery (platinum) demand — but Brent crude oil fell nearly 10% on demand fears despite an intra-quarter spike after Israel attacked Iran
South Africa
Precious metals prices were mostly higher amid US dollar weakness, and safe-haven (gold) and jewellery (platinum) demand — but Brent crude oil fell nearly 10% on demand fears despite an intra-quarter spike after Israel attacked Iran
Economy
World
Global developed market GDP growth remained modest even as inflation continued to ebb at low levels — with on-again off-again reciprocal tariffs playing havoc with trade and investment
South Africa
The South African economy continues its structural low-growth trend — business confidence ticked higher, but low fixed-investment and constraints in power, ports and rail kept growth sluggish
Monetary and fiscal policy
World
The US Federal Reserve has become a global outlier, holding rates steady this year even as other major banks, including the ECB and BoE, have cut interest rates — the Fed is wary of risks to prices, including from dollar weakness and tariffs
South Africa
A hawkish SARB cut the repo rate for only the second time this year, with real rates high as inflation lingers below the 3ꟷ6% target range — while Finance Minister Godongwana needed three tries to pass a controversial budget framework