Markets in a Nutshell — March 2025
World
South Africa
Equities
World
Global equity markets declined on escalating trade-war jitters, led lower by US bourses and the Magnificent Seven — but European and Chinese bourses were positive, with the Chinese tech sector re-rating after the DeepSeek breakthrough
South Africa
South African equities rallied on the back of surging resource shares, as copper, gold and platinum-group metals soared — while financial shares were slightly weaker and industrials only mildly positive
Bonds
World
Global bonds posted modest gains as investors sought safety and began pricing in policy easing — US Treasury yields fell by roughly 30 basis points amid growth concerns, while European bond yields ticked higher on signs of fiscal expansion
South Africa
South African bonds eked out a small gain even as late-quarter fiscal worries and the Budget vote fracas prompted a steeper yield curve — but shorter-term yields remained relatively anchored, mitigating larger bond price moves
Currencies
World
The US dollar weakened notably in the first quarter as US rate-hikes remained paused and trade uncertainty grew — the euro and yen both appreciated, while emerging-market currencies also experienced relief
South Africa
The rand appreciated modestly amid the global dollar slump, buoyed by high commodity export prices and improved investor sentiment — but was weaker against the pound and euro
Commodities
World
Commodity markets were divergent, with metals price surging but crude oil prices falling on softer demand expectations and ample supply — gold briefly topped at all-time high intra quarter of $3,100 per ounce as investors flocked to safe havens
South Africa
Commodity markets were divergent, with metals price surging but crude oil prices falling on softer demand expectations and ample supply — gold briefly topped at all-time high intra quarter of $3,100 per ounce as investors flocked to safe havens
Economy
World
The global economy grew at a subdued pace and the IMF’s updated outlook left full-year world GDP growth forecast around 3.3% (below historical trend) — prospects of a trade war and tariff announcements eroded business confidence, but inflation continued to ease
South Africa
South Africa’s economy remained fragile but avoided contraction in Q4 2024, taking full-year 2024 growth to a paltry 0.6%, underpinned by a recovery in agriculture and trade — while consumer price inflation was muted and near the lower end of the 3-6% target range
Monetary and fiscal policy
World
The US Federal Reserve maintained its rate cut pause, while the ECB again cut rates by 0.25% but warned of ‘phenomenal uncertainty’ from trade wars — on the fiscal front, the US dramatically upped tariffs on all countries and Germany broke fiscal tradition by unveiling a multi-year infrastructure and defence spending package
South Africa
The SA Reserve Bank cut the repo rate by 0.25% at the January MPC meeting for the third consecutive time, but held rates steady in March amid global uncertainty — meanwhile Finance Minister Enoch Godongwana presented a divisive 2025/26 national budget on the second attempt, that only narrowly (and conditionally) won parliamentary support